R2R SSB BATCHES START EVERY 1ST & 15TH of month. Referred articles were published in The Hindu.
1: Misinformation and COVID-19 Uptick: The Need for Better Preparedness in India
Background
- India has reported cases of COVID-19 for over three years, with a significant increase since May 2022.
- Wastewater surveillance data from Indian cities show heightened viral load, indicating increased community transmission.
- In 2020-21, India experienced a similar uptick in COVID-19, but data from other countries and regions suggest this is a new variant.
- The current uptick is linked to the JN.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant, a descendant of the Omicron variant.
- The JN.1 variant has been confirmed in India since November 2022, and has now become a major clinical problem in the country.
- The dominant variant, JN.1, was first reported in August 2023 in Luxembourg and has been reported globally since November-December 2023.
- A few sub-lineages of JN.1, such as LF.7 and FN.8, have also been reported, but their prevalence is not yet significant.
The Situation Now - The current uptick in COVID-19 cases in India is real but also due to enhanced COVID-19 testing and surveillance, following reports of COVID-19 variants.
- The Indian population has 'hybrid immunity' from natural infection and vaccination, which is why an uptick in cases is not necessarily a major public health concern.
- The human population protects from infection indirectly, but there is a risk of infection from direct exposure.
- In numbers, India continues to be disproportionately affected by the virus.
- The spike of 200 to 300 new COVID-19 cases daily in India translates to one new infection for every 4.5 lakh to 1 lakh population.
- Hospital admissions due to COVID-19 are being monitored.
- Daily infections are two times more in Mumbai and three times more in Bengaluru than in other cities.
- There are 90,000 to 100,000 people in India with underlying health conditions, who are at high risk from COVID-19.
- A death estimate of 500 to 900 people daily due to TB, preventable and treatable health conditions, is seen in India.
- Air pollution and respiratory illnesses cause significant morbidity and mortality in India.
- The number of deaths due to respiratory illnesses is another 300 deaths daily.
- The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is exacerbated by non-recurrent events.
- This is a result of misinformation, which complicates prevention.
- The current uptick in COVID-19 is less severe than the 2019 pandemic, which saw 300 to 400 cases daily.
- There is no need for panic, as the current variant is less transmissible and does not cause worse disease.
- The country's COVID-19 dashboard has shown activity recently, with current cases at 3961 (as on June 2, 8 a.m.), and the total number of deaths at 32.
- While 3961 cases may seem large, in a country with a population of over 1.4 billion, it is small.
- States have seen a day-on-day hike in positive testing for COVID-19.
- Omicron subvariants are not causing worse disease.
- People with pre-existing conditions are disproportionately affected by COVID-19.
- Common comorbidities include hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, obesity, kidney diseases, and advancing age (post 60 years).
- People with these conditions should practice good hygiene.
- Former World Health Organization Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan emphasized that the recent immunity from the pandemic provides protection.
- The government's role is to ensure that healthcare infrastructure, medical oxygen, and personnel are ready.
- Transparency and efficiency must guide the Centre and the States in their response.
Way Forward - India needs to continue surveillance and data collection for COVID-19 variants and their impact.
- Public health measures, including vaccination and hygiene, remain crucial for preventing severe illness.
- Transparent communication from authorities is essential to prevent panic and ensure effective public response.
- Focus on strengthening healthcare infrastructure and addressing comorbidities to reduce mortality.
2: Strengthening India-U.S. Connectivity: The Subsea Cable AgendaBackground
- Bilateral commercial engagement between India and the United States is accelerating across multiple fronts, not limited to an imminent trade agreement.
- Two administrations are working closely on strategic sectors, with a shared understanding of the need to diversify and de-risk technology supply chains in an increasingly volatile world.
- This includes efforts to fine-tune the Technology for Resilient, Open and Unified Security and Trust (TRUST) framework.
- The TRUST framework is central to the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, or ICET.
- Last year, United States President Donald Trump visited India for the Quad (India, Australia, Japan, U.S.) Summit.
- The first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement between India and the U.S. will be signed in advance of this Summit, which will set a bold baseline of deepening cooperation across digital technologies and markets.
- The physical backbone of the global internet – subsea cables – are emerging as an area of focus.
- They carry over 95% of international data traffic, enabling nearly all digital interactions.
- These cables reach land, connecting directly to users or linking to data centers that power cloud services and critical infrastructure.
- China's rapid expansion of subsea infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific through its Digital Silk Road initiative underscores the strategic importance of trusted alternatives.
The Situation Now - A strong public-American pledge to develop resilient, secure subsea systems would serve as a global public good.
- The TRUST framework recognizes India's growing role as a security provider in the Indo-Pacific.
- India also advances plans to invest in regional subsea cable infrastructure using trusted vendors.
- India hosts around 17 subsea cables, with a few more under construction.
- But these are comparatively small compared to Singapore's 26, despite its much smaller size.
- This must change, as we are well-positioned to become a regional connectivity hub.
- India has 11,098-kilometer coastline, a central location in the Indo-Pacific, and a fast-growing digital economy.
- India's coastline accounts for nearly two-thirds of its boundary.
- Yet, 15 of the country's 17 international subsea cables converge on a six-kilometer stretch in Mumbai.
- Cable landing stations, streamline facilities that connect subsea cables to terrestrial networks, are concentrated in five cities: Mumbai, Chennai, Kochi, Tuticorin, and Thiruvanathapuram.
- Continued diversification of network infrastructure is in order, as disruptions in one region can cause natural calamities, human error, or sabotage, leading to devastating implications.
- A spread-out network of landing stations would also increase resilience, which is the ability of a network to ensure data access even when there is a disruption.
- In 2024, Houthi rebels allegedly damaged subsea cables in the Red Sea.
- Indian operators were forced to reroute traffic to other cable systems to avoid disruption.
- A similar disruption could lead to breakdowns in both domestic and international communications.
- Subsea cable routes tend to mirror historical maritime trade routes.
- Positioned between Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa, India sits near key maritime choke points – the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, and Bab-el-Mandeb.
- This makes the country a natural hub for global cable networks.
- India is also at the centre of a region with the fastest broadband expansion, serving rising demand in dynamic economies across Africa and Asia, including Indonesia.
- It serves as a key junction for nearly all Africa-Asia and Europe-Asia submarine cables.
- Enhanced connectivity is important for serving surging domestic demand.
- India's bandwidth requirement is projected to grow by 38% between 2021 and 2028, fueled by rising consumption and data centre investments.
- Countering Beijing's influence in the Indo-Pacific is an important American policy.
- India's digital infrastructure, particularly subsea cables, is a front line asset that requires greater fortification.
Way Forward - For its part, India must lower entry barriers to greater investment.
- The licensing regime for undersea cables remains prohibitively complex and must be reformed.
- Cables need upwards of 50 clearances from multiple Ministries.
- India continues to rely on foreign-flagged cable repair ships, primarily based out of Singapore and Dubai.
- These vessels typically take between three to five months to respond to outages, leading to long travel times and cumbersome clearance processes.
- America also needs to step up investments in critical digital infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific.
- This includes inward concessional finance, technical assistance for cable route diversification, and cybersecurity.
- U.S. firms are taking positions in cable projects.
- An example is Meta's multi-year investment in a 50,000-kilometer undersea cable project to enhance Indian Ocean connectivity.
- This project is set to begin soon and will connect five continents.
- Supporting the development of a domestic subsea cable ecosystem, including depot infrastructure and Indian-flagged vessels, should also find mention under the TRUST framework.
- Finally, enhanced subsea cable collaboration will complement the broader U.S.-India trade deal.
- This is the essence of digital economy cooperation, with strong action on these fronts guaranteeing interoperability and advancing shared strategic and commercial goals.
3: Monsoon Woes: Northeast States Need a Long-Term Flood PlanBackground
- The southwest monsoon has made a torrential entry and is expected to wreak considerable havoc.
- While the monsoon's early arrival from Kerala, and its subsequent journey northwards, is a cause for celebration, it also brings economic implications.
- The Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is the only one, with two days after its onset over Kerala, it reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and then the northeastern States.
- This early onset is often accompanied by destruction from floods and landslides, which has been the case this year.
The Situation Now - In Assam, 10 major rivers are flowing above danger levels, and in all, more than three lakh people across 19 districts have been affected by floods that have disrupted everyday lives.
- Tripura also experienced heavy to very heavy rainfall across many districts, receiving an extremely heavy downpour for most of the week.
- The death toll from rain-induced landslides, flash floods, and lightning across the northeastern region was 27 until May 24, and on May 31, 22 people had lost their lives according to official estimates.
- In North Sikkim, landslides have blocked 1,500 tourists with arterial roads, with the Teesta River killing at least two people, with the rest of the passengers missing.
- This monsoon is expected to be "above normal," but that does not mean a stretch to expect a spate of disasters.
- The India Meteorological Department expects that the northeastern States will likely get less than their normal quota of rain, but the base level of monsoon rains in these States is higher than many States in India.
- This is why the extremely heavy rain and associated damage are a hard-wired feature of the monsoon in the northeastern States, even in a year of relative scarcity.
- The northeastern States also experience a smaller monsoon between October and December, highlighting the need to craft a plan that accounts for year-long vulnerability.
- Historically, infrastructure development in these States has not kept pace with the rest of the country.
- Challenging geographical conditions are a major reason for this.
Way Forward - A long-term plan involving all the affected States and the Centre is needed to reduce fatalities and widespread destruction annually.
- Improved infrastructure and early warning systems are crucial for disaster preparedness.
- Sustainable land use practices and effective flood management strategies are essential to mitigate the impact of heavy rainfall.
4: Readiness, Not Panic: COVID-19 Resurgence Calls for Better PreparednessBackground
- The lessons of the past should serve as a guide for better preparedness.
- The country's COVID-19 dashboard has shown activity in recent weeks, with the total number of cases at 3961 (as on June 2, 8 a.m.), and the number of deaths at 32.
- While 3961 cases may seem large, in a country with a population of over 1.4 billion, it is a small number.
- States have shown a day-on-day hike in positive testing for COVID-19, but overall numbers are decreasing.
- 2,188 people have been discharged, underscoring that the variants causing infection now (Omicron subvariants) are less transmissible and do not cause worse disease than in the past.
The Situation Now - Panic and anxiety are unwarranted, but caution and precautionary approaches are advisable, particularly for vulnerable individuals and those with comorbidities.
- Experiences from the pandemic indicate that people with pre-existing conditions are disproportionately affected by COVID-19 infection.
- Common comorbidities include hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, obesity, kidney diseases, and advancing age (post 60 years).
- People with these conditions must continue masking up in public places and practice hand washing.
- Former World Health Organization Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan has affirmed that recent immunity from the pandemic provides protection.
- It is important to take possible precautions including giving boosters or vaccine shots, especially to the vulnerable.
- The government's role is to ensure that infrastructure, medical oxygen, and healthcare personnel are ready.
- An alternative scenario that must be avoided is the deliberate obfuscation of data on true numbers on infections or deaths.
- Transparency and efficiency must guide the Centre and the States.
- The lesson from the pandemic is that panic is debilitating, while readiness enables.
Way Forward - Transparency and efficiency in data reporting are crucial for effective public health management.
- Strengthening healthcare infrastructure and ensuring adequate medical supplies and personnel are essential.
- Targeted vaccination and booster campaigns for vulnerable populations should continue.
- Public awareness campaigns on hygiene and precautionary measures remain important.
5: India's Strategic Imperative: Reforming Pakistan PolicyBackground
- The Indo-Pacific is the central geopolitical theatre of the Asian century.
- The global order is being reframed, and India must redefine its strategic focus.
- India has a responsibility to be its own future.
- Robust guardianship for peace, not only among the great powers but also to contain peripheral disruptors, is required.
- A major task is to recalibrate the India-China-Pakistan triangle, where India and China must assume the role of stabilizers, while Pakistan must be managed as a strategic irritant, not a geopolitical peer.
- The Indo-Pakistan relationship has declined since 2004, with the "dread" of inheritance of history.
- This is not a reflection of strategic maturity.
- The global architecture today demands that India reframe itself, not as Pakistan's rival.
- Pakistan's instability shifts both strategy and narrative, where Pakistan is engineered to fundamentally redraw India's broader posture.
The Situation Now - The Pakistan challenge: Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state with a history of exporting instability and operating as a proxy for China's tactical goals.
- Its internal dysfunction and structural asymmetry derive from its dependence on China for military, economic, and diplomatic sustenance.
- India must confront this international challenge.
- India's choice must be to pursue a policy of calibrated containment of Pakistan.
- Engagement should be minimal, transactional, and allow for equivalence.
- India seeks to maintain minimal direct visibility and avoid rhetorical excess from Pakistan.
- Pakistan is a predatory state that feeds not only on its neighbors but also its own people.
- India cannot afford the illusion of a Great Wall to shut it out.
- India cannot accept the bottom line that as long as the India-Pakistan conflict remains unresolved or is combustible, it will consume India's ascent to great power status.
- The China-Pakistan relationship is a conventional alliance, but an international enterprise where China treats Pakistan as an economic lever against India.
- The challenge for India is to strategically decouple its partnership by treating China as a systemic peer competitor and Pakistan as a tactical irritant.
- They cannot be allowed to merge into a single strategic front in perception or in policy.
- India has done well to diplomatically expose the imbalanced nature of the China-Pakistan relationship.
- The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a textbook case of neocolonialism.
- Pakistan's agency is drained by its over-dependence on Chinese loans, weapons, and diplomatic cover.
- India must highlight this global reality.
- India's operational strategy must never be compelled to fight on two adversaries simultaneously.
- India requires flexible deterrence, investment in rapid military intelligence, infrastructure, and expanded, dynamic maritime partnerships.
- Always remember that power derives from strategic composure.
- Narrative warfare is critical.
- Framing the China-Pakistan relationship as a challenge to regional autonomy – where sovereignty is traded for tactical advantage – is important.
- This projection of India as a builder of institutions, the defender of multilateralism, and a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, is a mature and confident thesis.
- Asia and Asians must be the principal stakeholders for their region's security architecture.
- Asia must construct its own guardrails, balancing continental and maritime interests, and not outsource stability to external powers.
- India and China bear a special responsibility here – not as rivals, but as co-architects of regional order.
- No such balance can be sustained when either enables peripheral destabilizers.
- Pakistan cannot be the prism through which the India-China relationship is viewed.
- The reality is that the India-China relationship is strategic, not just a border issue.
- India is the continental power, with maritime dominance.
- Stability in Asia demands that this distinction be institutionalized.
- India-Pakistan engagement must not be prescribed, but it must be without illusion.
- India must maintain hotlines, backchannels, and functional diplomacy to avoid miscalculation.
- Keep the conflict cold and above the interests of defining India's strategic bandwidth.
- Power cannot be defined only by what they oppose, but by the philosophy of balance and stability.
- India, the architect: India must invest in alternative strategic triangles – with France and UAE, with the U.S. and Japan, with Australia and Indonesia – that reflect its wider engagements, and revalue Pakistan's centrality.
- These are not just pillars of India's compelling coalitions that build a compelling narrative.
- They project India as the architect, the builder of a forward-looking strategy, and not trapped in a legacy conflict.
- Ultimately, the message must be clear: India's rise to pre-eminence on its own depends on India's ability to prevent Pakistan from sharing its national trajectory.
- China is the true peer rival, Pakistan must be the manageable risk.
- Strategic maturity lies in quiet, determined deterrence without rhetorical flourishes.
- The essence of great power behaviour is to foster stability, where partnerships elevate, not entangle.
Way Forward - India must recalibrate its Pakistan policy to focus on managing it as a strategic irritant rather than a geopolitical peer.
- Strengthening its strategic partnerships with other nations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, is crucial for India's regional and global influence.
- India needs to invest in advanced military capabilities and intelligence to ensure its security.
- A proactive and transparent diplomatic approach is essential for maintaining stability in the region.
6: Why Has Net FDI Inflow Plummeted? India's Investment LandscapeBackground
- The RBI Bulletin (May 2025) provides foreign direct investment (FDI) figures for the fiscal year 2024-25.
- Two contrasting narratives have emerged from the data.
- A small number of government sources and many media outlets have reported that India received an unprecedented $18 billion in gross inflows.
- However, looking closer at the data, other government officials have highlighted the plummeting net FDI inflow.
- The government and economists monitor these flows as a barometer of the investment climate.
- In principle, FDI inflows enhance fixed investments and expand production capacity.
- In practice, there are differences across different types of FDI and best practices.
- The reality, however, may be different.
- So what do the conflicting numbers reveal?
The Situation Now - The discrepancy concerns the significance of the figures.
- It is necessary to relate them to the country's GDP.
- Gross FDI inflows to GDP ratio steadily declined from 3.1% in 2020-21 to 2.8% in 2024-25.
- However, the net FDI, the driver of GDP, fell sharply from 1.9% to zero in the same period, highlighting the divergence between the two narratives.
- The graph shows a steadily rising outward FDI (OFDI) and "repatriation and disinvestment" from India, but it has not reached the level seen in the past.
- Companies from India, including MNCs and manufacturing firms, invest overseas to acquire technologies and enhance their domestic capabilities.
- However, OFDI includes financial flows, and many known tax havens, such as Singapore and Mauritius, are also the top sources of India's inward FDI.
- There are questions about whether foreign investments into India are "hot money" due to global interest rates and stock market booms.
- In a research paper (What Does Inward FDI Really Measure?), Ollow and Barn found that "alternative inward FDI flows" are highly correlated to global interest rates and U.S. policy rate.
- Large financial conglomerates move liquid capital across the world to take advantage of variations in tax laws and practices.
- India ranked sixth in descending order among 25 emerging market economies, while China ranked 28th.
- The study's sharp conclusions seem mismatched.
- Measured FDI flows are different from true flows and may reflect "flows through rather than to the country," with profits repatriated to the home country rather than reinvested in India.
- Policy concerning both researchers and policymakers is crucial.
- In other words, "FDI flows" represent a movement of capital through India, rather than a genuine increase in production capacity.
- The rising disinvestment is due to the rising share of private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) in FDI inflows.
- These are usually to obtain controlling stakes in firms, rather than long-term investments.
- Household FDI in India's services sector, fintech, retail, healthcare, real estate, banking, and insurance, has risen significantly.
- For instance, Blackstone is investing in Care Hospitals, and ChrysCap is investing in Lenskart.
- Such funds are loosely regulated and tend to "hold their positions" by selling them off at market highs.
- Net FDI (and gross FDI), relative to GDP, has declined steadily since 2021.
- This, in conjunction with plummeting net OFDI, is a matter of concern.
- The decline in foreign investment in India is a major concern.
- It is worth noting that FDI inflows have been volatile, with a decrease in 2021-22 and 7% of GFCF since 2014.
- There are, however, some exceptions concerning the composition and utilization of FDI.
- The majority of FDI consists of alternative investment funds, which hardly generate "new" investment in capital formation, technology acquisition, and augmenting Indian industrial output.
- This implies that India's OFDI suggests that India may be used as a conduit for tax arbitrage rather than genuine investment.
- This concerns all.
- The government needs to reform foreign capital regulations to attract domestic enterprises and improve domestic capabilities.
- Foreign capital should be integrated to reforms.
Way Forward - India needs to reform its foreign capital regulations to attract genuine investments that contribute to domestic capabilities and industrial output.
- Clearer definitions of FDI and a focus on long-term, productive investments are essential.
- The government should strengthen domestic industries to reduce reliance on "hot money" and ensure sustainable economic growth.
- Effective monitoring and regulation of financial flows are crucial to prevent tax arbitrage and ensure transparency.
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